Each business morning I get up at 4:00 a.m. Central Time, do a couple quick push-ups and crunches and head to my office in downtown Chicago by 4:30 a.m. The reason for the extreme hour isn't my trading, but the other side of my life, broadcasting. I host "Taking Care of Business with Doctor J" on CBS radio each day at 5:00 a.m., a financial wake-up call that booms out to 38 states on the 50,000-watt WSCR. When I arrive at the office, which also serves as my studio, my business partner and co-host, Tom Haugh, and I pour through the business news of the past 12 hours and prepare for our program. We're looking for both the top stories of the day, as well as the overlooked stories. For instance, Donald Trump may be entering voluntary bankruptcy and that's the big story, but how the Donald has structured his purchase of 25% of the "new" stock absent $600 million in debt is the overlooked story. After we have plucked all the pertinent news stories from our myriad Internet resources, we check for breaking news and pre-market movers and shakers on eSignal. Once we have all the data together, we're ready to roll, and another day of news, commentary and phone-in Q&A is on. At the end of the program, I post my top four stories of the day, along with a stock to watch, to my subscription website, www.insideoptions.com. Here's a copy of what that looked like on a typical day (August 10, 2004): Another New Record for Oil - U.S. oil prices stayed within a whisker of $45 a barrel, but European and Asian stocks still posted modest gains as the market awaited an expected interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. U.S. oil prices jumped to $44.99, the highest since futures were launched on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1983 as violence in Iraq disrupted output and exports from the country, adding to fears about supply. Trump Fires Himself! Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts Inc. says key bond holders have agreed to take the company into voluntary bankruptcy and restructure its $1.8 billion in debt to get a $400 million capital infusion. The Donald will take his company into voluntary bankruptcy and restructure its $1.8 billion in debt to get a $400 million capital infusion. A significant amount of casino bond holders had agreed to swap $1.8 billion in debt for $1.25 billion in new 10-year publicly traded debt and a mix of cash and stock in the new company. The annual interest rate will fall to 7.875 percent from an average of approximately 12 percent, and the company said it would be able to secure up to $500 million in new financing. Cisco & Disney Earnings - Cisco Systems reports its fiscal fourth quarter after the closing bell, with most investors focused on revenue growth and inventories, two areas of broad concern that have hit tech stocks in the past month. Most analysts expect the world's largest networking gearmaker to report sales around $5.9 billion, a 25% gain from the same quarter last year and a sequential increase of 5.1 percent. Disney is due to report earnings per share of 27 cents, a 40 percent hike from the same period last year, on comparable revenue growth of 16 percent, to $7.1 billion. Remember folks, back on Feb. 11, Comcast Corporation, the country's largest cable operator, launched a hostile bid for The Walt Disney Company that valued shares at $30. They sit at $22 right now! Delta Burns Through $700 Million - Delta Air Lines, racing to slash costs to avoid bankruptcy, said lower yields and higher fuel prices have eaten into 2004 cash flow, prompting it to turn to cash reserves to pay certain expenses. The Atlanta-based carrier had $2.0 billion in cash at the end of the second quarter, down from $2.7 billion at the end of 2003. The nation's third-largest airline, which said it may be forced to file for bankruptcy soon if it cannot reduce costs substantially, has not outlined which expenses will be paid out of its cash reserves, a Delta spokeswoman said. Analysts have said the company could face a liquidity crunch as soon as this fall or winter. Fed Meets, Rates Up? I am going on record saying the Fed will stick to its plan to raise rates. I think this will be the last increase prior to the election. I expect Mr. Greenspan to again say that this soft spot in the economy is temporary. Changes in his verbiage will undoubtedly move the markets, so stay tuned. Expect the release about 1:15 pm CT today. Stock to watch: AmeriCredit (ACF) Why? Because the auto financing biz has been going great guns and ACF has posted some very impressive quarterly numbers. How impressive? How about net income of $82.7 million, or 51 cents a share, in its fiscal fourth quarter versus consensus estimates down at $.34!! Last year ACF reported a loss of $17.1 million, or 11 cents a share, for the comparable period. Sales jumped to $332.8 million from $197.3 million last year. The company said automobile loan purchases increased to $1.1 billion from $686.9 million last year. AmeriCredit also raised its 2005 net income forecast to a range of $230 million to $250 million, or $1.44 to $1.56 a share, vs. $180 million to $200 million, or $1.09 to $1.21 a share. Shares closed at $17.53 and should test the 52-week high up at $20.74. However, let's not be pigs. If we take a buck or two out, let's hit the exits! I will keep a rolling stop loss $.50 under my entry. |
As I head off to FOX television to do my daily business shows, I check my QuoTrek service (a wireless market quote service I added to my eSignal subscription) on my Treo phone to see how my stock to watch is doing. We have a little more than 500 subscribers who count on this information, and they'll only remain customers if we make money on our picks, so the pressure is on! As I follow ACF in the pre-market, and, once the regular session begins, I check QuoTrek again to see if the stock is stalling, falling or moving as I've predicted. On the day that is the subject of this article, ACF opened at $19.80 and ran to close at the high of the day. As it hit my target, we exited the trade. (And, we hope our subscribers did too.) The up-to-the-second, live QuoTrek is a godsend; I can't depend on luck or a delayed quote because I'm in there fighting for a buck or two and only willing to take $.50 of pain if I'm wrong. Today's market gives us very few of the old buy-and-hold opportunities, so immediate and accurate information is vital. If I tried to convince myself that I could meet my commitments to our subscribers and my own trading account without the edge eSignal and QuoTrek give me, I'd be kidding myself. |